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Adaptive Biotechnologies Corp (ADPT)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q2 delivered top- and bottom-line outperformance: revenue $58.9M (+36% y/y) and GAAP EPS of $(0.17); sequencing gross margin expanded to 64% and total adjusted EBITDA loss improved to $(7.2)M .
  • MRD business reached profitability with $1.9M segment adjusted EBITDA; clonoSEQ volumes rose 37% to 25,321 tests, and MRD pharma included $5.5M milestones; management raised MRD revenue guidance to $190–$200M and cut cash burn outlook to $45–$55M .
  • Versus S&P Global consensus, revenue beat ($58.9M vs $49.4M*) and EPS beat (−$0.17 vs −$0.24*); magnitude of the beat was driven by stronger clinical volume, improving ASP, and milestone revenue in MRD *.
  • Catalysts: national Flatiron OncoEMR integration live 7/1, accelerating EMR penetration (40 Epic sites), CHMP positive opinion supporting MRD as early endpoint in myeloma, and NovaSeq X go-live for clonoSEQ to support scale and margin .

Note: Asterisks denote values retrieved from S&P Global.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • MRD profitability and guidance raise: “Our MRD business achieved profitability this quarter… we are again raising our full year guidance,” highlighting execution and visibility on H2 .
  • Volume and pricing momentum: clonoSEQ volumes +37% to 25,321; U.S. ASP grew ~17% y/y, supported by payer contracting and better revenue cycle management .
  • Margin expansion and improved cash burn: sequencing gross margin reached 64% (+14ppt y/y); quarterly cash burn was ~$(11)M with $222M in cash and marketable securities at Q2-end .

What Went Wrong

  • Company still loss-making at consolidated level: net loss $(25.6)M; adjusted EBITDA $(7.2)M; Immune Medicine segment adjusted EBITDA $(6.1)M .
  • Continued reliance on milestone timing in MRD Pharma (lumpy), though backlog rose to ~$218M; management cautioned milestone cadence can vary quarter-to-quarter .
  • Flatiron integration is very early days; while a major growth lever, management emphasized learning curve and timing dependencies before quantifying potential upside .

Financial Results

Consolidated Performance (oldest → newest)

MetricQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Revenue ($M)$47.5 $52.4 $58.9
Revenue YoY Growth+4% +25% +36%
GAAP EPS (Basic & Diluted)$(0.23) $(0.20) $(0.17)
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)$(16.45) $(12.75) $(7.20)

Q2 2025 vs S&P Global Consensus

MetricConsensusActualSurprise
Revenue ($M)$49.4*$58.9 +$9.5M; Beat
GAAP EPS$(0.24)*$(0.17) +$0.07; Beat

Values with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment Breakdown

SegmentQ2 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
MRD Revenue ($M)$35.3 $43.7 $49.9
Immune Medicine Revenue ($M)$7.9 $8.7 $8.9
MRD Adjusted EBITDA ($M)$(11.29) $(4.11) $1.91
Immune Medicine Adjusted EBITDA ($M)$(7.03) $(5.45) $(6.07)

KPIs and Operating Metrics

KPIQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
clonoSEQ Test Volumes (units)20,945 23,117 25,321
clonoSEQ Volume YoY Growth+34% +36% +37%
Sequencing Gross Margin %N/A62% 64%
MRD Pharma Milestones ($M)N/A$4.5 $5.5
Blood-based Share of MRD (%)N/A44% 44%
Ordering HCPs (Count)N/A>3,400 >3,700
Cash & Mkt. Securities ($M)$256.0 $232.8 $222.0
Cash Burn ($M)N/A~$(23) ~$(11)

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
MRD Revenue ($M)FY 2025$180–$190 $190–$200 Raised
MRD Milestones ($M)FY 2025$8–$9 $14–$15 Raised
Total Co. OpEx incl. COGS ($M)FY 2025$335–$345 $335–$345 Maintained
Total Co. Cash Burn ($M)FY 2025$50–$60 $45–$55 Lowered
clonoSEQ Volume GrowthFY 2025~30% vs 2024 ~35% vs 2024; sequential growth Q3 & Q4 Raised / Maintained seq growth

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ4 2024 (Prior)Q1 2025 (Prior)Q2 2025 (Current)Trend
EMR Integrations (Epic/Flatiron)Building momentum; Medicare CLFS uplift supports adoption 27 live EMR sites; growth outpacing non-integrated 40 Epic sites live; Flatiron OncoEMR national go-live 7/1 across 113 account groups Accelerating
ASP/Pricing & ContractingCLFS gapfill to $2,007/test ASP +14% y/y; major national payer wins ASP +~17% y/y; more large payer implementations in H2 Improving
Blood-based MRDEmphasis on MM/CLL; coverage expands Blood-based at 44% of MRD tests 44% of MRD tests; higher share in MM; NHL mix rising Stable to up
MRD Pharma Endpoints/RegulatoryODAC voted for MRD as primary endpoint in MM Portfolio shifting to later-stage, registrational use CHMP positive opinion for MRD as early endpoint in MM; backlog ~$218M Strengthening
NovaSeq X / Cost & ScaleTargeting margin scale longer-term NovaSeq X H2 launch; +5–8ppt GM in first 12 months clonoSEQ processing on NovaSeq X underway Executing
NeoGenomics CollaborationAnnounced exclusive partnership Phase I planning for H2’25 Phase I pilot begun; national rollout targeted 2026 Building
Cash & Profitability2024 adj. EBITDA loss narrowed Target adj. EBITDA positive in H2’25 MRD adj. EBITDA positive; path to cash breakeven near-term Ahead of plan

Management Commentary

  • “Our second quarter results demonstrate strong execution with outperformance on both the top and bottom line… Our MRD business achieved profitability this quarter” — Chad Robins, CEO .
  • “Sequencing gross margin… was 64% for the quarter… improvement of 14 percentage points versus prior year” — Kyle Piskel, CFO .
  • “We are again raising our full year MRD revenue guidance to $190–$200 million… and lowering our full year total company cash burn guidance to $45–$55 million” — Kyle Piskel .
  • “We went live nationally with OncoEMR on July 1… a significant opportunity to expand in the community” — Susan Bobulsky, CCO .
  • “CHMP issued a positive opinion supporting the use of MRD testing as an early endpoint… further cements the case for pharma” — Chad Robins .

Q&A Highlights

  • EMR/Flatiron traction: Flatiron went live across 113 account groups on 7/1; serial testing cadence ordering in OncoEMR expected to support consistent monitoring; impact likely to build through H2 and into 2026 .
  • Pricing/ASP drivers: Mix shift to newer price points at Medicare, contracting wins across Blues and nationals; additional large payers to implement in H2 .
  • Profitability durability: MRD adjusted EBITDA expected to remain positive; magnitude will vary with milestone timing, but trajectory supports sustained profitability .
  • Backlog/milestones: ~$218M MRD pharma backlog; ~ $4–5M of milestones implied for H2; milestone timing is lumpy but broader trajectory remains favorable .
  • NCCN guideline tailwind: Update endorsing ID testing at diagnosis in MM supports broader funnel for MRD monitoring, particularly in community setting .

Estimates Context

  • Q2 2025 results vs S&P Global consensus: Revenue $58.9M vs $49.4M*; GAAP EPS $(0.17) vs $(0.24)* — both beats driven by stronger clinical volumes, pricing, and $5.5M pharma milestones *.
  • Street FY outlook: FY25 revenue consensus ~$264.6M* and FY26 ~$267.7M*; EPS consensus FY25 $(0.49), FY26 $(0.57) — raised MRD guidance and MRD profitability likely warrant upward revisions to MRD revenue and improved loss trajectory assumptions*.

Values with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • MRD at inflection: profitability achieved with clear levers (EMR integrations, payer contracting, NovaSeq X) supporting sustained revenue and margin expansion .
  • Near-term catalysts: Flatiron OncoEMR rollout, accelerating Epic integrations, additional payer agreements, and continuing pharma milestones/backlog burn should support estimate momentum .
  • Guidance quality improved: MRD revenue guide raised to $190–$200M and cash burn cut to $45–$55M; sequential growth expected in Q3/Q4; bias to upside if Flatiron pull-through accelerates .
  • Mix/pricing tailwinds: ASP up ~17% y/y with more large payer implementations ahead; revenue cycle and EMR-enabled ordering/serial testing should further support cash conversion and unit economics .
  • Regulatory momentum: ODAC (U.S.) and CHMP (EU) support MRD endpoints, expanding pharma adoption and milestone potential across MM and other lymphoid cancers .
  • Risk checks: consolidated losses persist and milestone timing can add volatility; Flatiron/NeoGenomics benefits will scale over several quarters; Immune Medicine remains investment stage .
  • Trading setup: narrative skewed positive on execution and raised outlook; monitor Q3/Q4 sequential growth, ASP progression, and EMR/Flatiron pull-through for confirmation .

Additional Context and Sources

  • Q2 2025 press release and 8-K (earnings details, guidance, financial statements) .
  • Q2 2025 earnings call transcript (profitability, integrations, ASP, backlog, CHMP, Q&A) .
  • Flatiron OncoEMR integration announcement (7/1 launch) .
  • Prior quarters for trend: Q1 2025 press release and call; Q4 2024 press release .